Tom Bradley ran for governor of California in 1982. Bradley, a black man, was leading in the polls by over 10%. However, he lost the election.
The so-called Bradley Effect was named after this event. In several other elections in the US the actual votes received by African Americans was significantly less than polls predicted.
There are some theories on why this happens, with the most popular being that voters might be embarrassed to sound racist and so lie to pollsters. When they get in the voting booth, inner bias takes over.
Polls show that Obama has a 3% – 7% advantage (depending on the poll). If the Bradley effect affects this race, that may not be enough.
It would be interesting to know the percentage of registered black people who vote.
Comment by Mom — October 4, 2008 @ 10:28 pm
I think the more interesting question is why did more than 90% of blacks vote for Obama in the primaries? It’s quite obvious they voted because he is black above all other reasons. Seems like a bad reason to me but what do I know. I’m not really up on how sheep think.
Comment by Don — October 5, 2008 @ 8:06 am
I’m not sure if 90% is exact, but it’s probably pretty close.
I can see some justification for this, even as I can for the many women who wanted to vote for Hillary. A black person might feel that here is someone who understands what it’s like to be black in America, and hope that he perhaps can help influence the system in their favor, “righting inequities”, so to speak.
In some ways it’s not that much different from “voting your party” — people vote for someone whom they assume has similar values and perspective to theirs.
(Boy, you’re really into that “sheep” metaphor lately, aren’t you! That’s kind of an elitist attitude…;) )
Comment by Daryl — October 5, 2008 @ 6:58 pm
1337 That’s me!
Of course calling church going people stupid or in a club isn’t elitist at all. 😉
Comment by Don — October 6, 2008 @ 7:15 am
I didn’t really mean that the way it sounded. There are people smarter than I who attend churches, and lots of stupid people don’t.
I do stand by my position that a church is more like a club than a charity.
Comment by Daryl — October 6, 2008 @ 10:05 am
Interesting: This poll shows 94% of blacks would vote for Obama.
There are some other interesting tidbits in this poll.
-The only age group that prefers McCain is the over-60 group, at 45% – 43%. The under-30s are 63% – 28% for Obama.
-This poll shows Obama up by 12% overall (52% – 40%), but other current polls have the lead around 8%.
-Three of the four regions of the country (NorthEast, MidWest and West) strongly favor Obama. Only the South favors McCain.
Comment by Daryl — October 6, 2008 @ 11:01 am
If you check I said “more than 90%”. Looks like it almost 95%. Baaaaaaaaaaaaaa
Comment by Don — October 6, 2008 @ 11:23 am
I’ve read that the majority of blacks are Democrats. Does anyone have a statistic on that?? It would make sense.
These debates don’t get any more interesting….
And Obama’s talking about not “codling” terrorists. heheheh. WOOHOOO he just said he’d kill alkida!! (sp?) See, he does have a tough side.
Comment by Jocelyn — October 7, 2008 @ 7:12 pm
Once again Joce you make a statement but you stop there. Why does it make sense that most blacks are Democrats?
Did you know Republicans typically support school vouchers which would let those poor blacks send their kids to better schools? Democrats don’t want that. Why do you think that is?
I think it’s because they want to keep the poor black kids in the schools where the poor blacks live, or worse send the kids to a school picked by the school system. They don’t want them to have a choice.
Comment by Don — October 7, 2008 @ 7:39 pm
No, It’s because Democrats usually are more open and accepting of different people. Like people with black skin. I didn’t explain myself because I saw it as a no-brainer.
Comment by Jocelyn — October 8, 2008 @ 5:34 am
You saw it as a no-brainer because you’ve bought into the liberal lies.
Show me the facts to back up that statement? Did you know Robert Byrd, a prominent Democrat in the Senate was an Exalted Cyclops in the Ku Klux Klan? Do you remember Abe Lincoln was a Republican. By the way, he freed the slaves.
The Democrats have been perpetuating the myth that Republicans dislike Blacks for decades but the facts show that’s a lie.
Did you know George W. Bush has/had more blacks in his cabinet than Clinton? He also had more blacks in higher positions. Colin Powell, first black Secretary of State. Condeleeza Rice, second black National Security Advisor and second black Secretary of State.
I’m sorry Joce but if you’re going to say something at least find some facts to back up your statement. It’s not a “no-brainer” because it’s not true.
Comment by Don — October 8, 2008 @ 6:33 am
Jocelyn,
To answer your question: Your intuition was very correct, as shown by the following chart.
As recently as 2004, Black Democrats outnumbered Black Republicans 65% to 6%, or more than 10 to 1.
This came from the Pew Research Center.
Comment by Daryl — October 8, 2008 @ 8:11 am
And it was a question, not a fact.
Comment by Jocelyn — October 8, 2008 @ 8:38 am
Yes, it is a fact that Blacks are much more likely to be Democrat.
If you really want to learn something check out this site. There you can read about a Black man who has realized the Democrats are not the party of people who want to rise above. They are the party of people who think the government knows best about everything. Larry Elder might just teach you something. Even Daryl might learn a bit if he got off his 1337 horse. 😉
Comment by Don — October 8, 2008 @ 9:23 am