… the non-expert is probably wise to withhold opinion, or at least not be too dogmatic about it.
Economics is the first thing that comes to mind. Maybe Keynes is right, maybe Friedman, maybe neither. I tend to lean towards Keynes, but with all the disagreement between the experts, I have to confess that I really don’t know.
On the other hand, when the experts all agree (or the vast majority), that’s good evidence that the opinion they hold is closer to reality than any contradicting ideas I may have. There are exceptions all through history, of course. Plate tectonics is a recent example, where in the early 20th century geologists mostly laughed at the idea that there were huge moving plates under the earth surface. But as the evidence accumulated, and the old guard died off, it became the accepted theory. And the trend was continually in the direction of more and more acceptance.
Global climate change is an example today where almost all the experts (climatologists) agree that it is happening, and that human activity is a major cause. As with plate tectonics, the trend has been towards more and more acceptance by the climatologists, to the extent that today it is very hard to find any that disagree.
People who disagree are mainly television pundits, politicians and businesses that might be hurt by corrective actions, though they have done a job of convincing people that there’s some kind of conspiracy. Even as I wouldn’t ask one of them for medical advice, or understanding about quantum physics, I also doubt their expertise on climate.
3 responses so far ↓
1 Donna // Nov 18, 2011 at 5:49 pm
Well, alrighty, then.
2 Don // Nov 18, 2011 at 7:54 pm
Although I agree with you on most of what you say you forgot to mention that Al Gore got extremely rich by scaring people and yet flies around in private planes.
The thing that isn’t agreed upon by all scientists is what will happen in the future. We do know that the earth has warmed and cooled for the last 4 billion years at least. It’s been hotter and it’s been cooler and yet it, and man, are still here.
3 Daryl // Nov 19, 2011 at 12:05 pm
Al Gore has nothing to do with whether or not the science is correct. He’s not a climatologist.
For the future, I think the scientists are pretty much all in agreement that unless we reduce our impact, the current warming trend will continue, or accelerate, with devastating results for our civilization.
Yes, the earth has gone through major climate changes before, and with each one there were large changes to ocean levels, growing seasons, and species extinctions. I’m sure homo sapiens will survive, but at a huge cost to standard of living, and with increasing famines, floods and droughts.