{"id":1274,"date":"2015-06-07T17:22:23","date_gmt":"2015-06-08T00:22:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/daryllafferty.com\/blog\/?p=1274"},"modified":"2015-06-07T17:25:06","modified_gmt":"2015-06-08T00:25:06","slug":"thank-you-el-nino-i-think","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/daryllafferty.com\/blog\/2015\/06\/07\/thank-you-el-nino-i-think\/","title":{"rendered":"Thank you, El Ni\u00c3\u00b1o (I think…)"},"content":{"rendered":"

This year in central Arizona we’ve experienced the wettest May on record and the first recorded rainfall in Phoenix ever on the date of June 5. This is all probably due at least in part to the El Ni\u00c3\u00b1o<\/a> effect.<\/p>\n

During an El Ni\u00c3\u00b1o the surface water in the Pacific ocean off the coast of Peru and Ecuador becomes warmer than usual (currently about 4 degrees F above normal). This has effects on the weather all over the world.<\/p>\n

The El Ni\u00c3\u00b1o effect can be seen as an oscillation of warmth back and forth across the Pacific. Years when the water off Peru is colder than normal have been dubbed La Ni\u00c3\u00b1a years, and the effects on weather are basically the opposite.<\/p>\n

\"El<\/p>\n

The largest effect is on South America, where the warmer water evaporates more and causes a lot more rainfall, but weather over much of the world is also affected.<\/p>\n

\"El<\/center><\/p>\n

Computer models<\/a> predict that this year’s El Ni\u00c3\u00b1o could be the strongest in many years, and could have a big effect on weather if it continues to build into the fall and winter as predicted. Among the predictions:
\n– It could take a big bite out of the drought in California and Arizona — a strong El Ni\u00c3\u00b1o is associated with up to a 174% increase in precipitation in California;
\n– Fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic than usual;
\n– Fewer tornadoes than usual in the mid-west;
\n– A milder than normal winter for much of the US.
\n– On the flip side, they predict an “extremely active Pacific typhoon season”. There are some cool graphs and maps at the link at the top of this paragraph.<\/p>\n

Most of this sounds good for us! The biggest worry is that the increased rainfall in California and the southwest could cause flooding damage and injuries. And then there’s this:<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00c3\u00b1o has an interesting effect on overall global temperatures. See the graphs below.<\/p>\n

The top graph shows global temperatures. The bottom graph shows sea temperature deviations in the eastern Pacific; red is warmer than average and blue is cooler than average. <\/p>\n

\"Climate<\/p>\n

Note how global temperatures tend to rise during an El Ni\u00c3\u00b1o, and dip during La Ni\u00c3\u00b1a. Note the spikes in the lower graph, particularly in 1973, 1983 and 1998. In each case the global temperatures hit a new high, and then plunged for several years afterwards. The strongest El Ni\u00c3\u00b1o event in recent history occurred in 1998, and is associated with the highest average global temperatures ever recorded. The El Ni\u00c3\u00b1os since then have been milder, and the La Ni\u00c3\u00b1as unabated, causing some observers to speculate that the rise in global temperatures has stopped. But in the long view, 1998 is clearly an outlier event caused by that year’s El Ni\u00c3\u00b1o, with the general trend unaffected. If this year’s El Ni\u00c3\u00b1o turns out to be as strong as predicted, we should set new records.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This year in central Arizona we’ve experienced the wettest May on record and the first recorded rainfall in Phoenix ever on the date of June 5. This is all probably due at least in part to the El Ni\u00c3\u00b1o effect. During an El Ni\u00c3\u00b1o the surface water in the Pacific ocean off the coast of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1274","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-computers"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/daryllafferty.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1274","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/daryllafferty.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/daryllafferty.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daryllafferty.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daryllafferty.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1274"}],"version-history":[{"count":29,"href":"https:\/\/daryllafferty.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1274\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1303,"href":"https:\/\/daryllafferty.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1274\/revisions\/1303"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/daryllafferty.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1274"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daryllafferty.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1274"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daryllafferty.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1274"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}